Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.068603 0.079030 0.090860 0.105345 0.122701 0.142948 0.168529
2025-10-26 0.051892 0.064123 0.079239 0.099528 0.126403 0.161290 0.210855
2025-11-02 0.039891 0.052210 0.068560 0.092296 0.126648 0.175804 0.253841
2025-11-09 0.030859 0.042405 0.058692 0.084027 0.123742 0.185963 0.295905
2025-11-16 0.025698 0.036997 0.053906 0.082070 0.129951 0.212420 0.376094
2025-11-23 0.021655 0.032511 0.049654 0.080082 0.135974 0.241626 0.477703
2025-11-30 0.018817 0.029395 0.046983 0.080205 0.146146 0.283362 0.631612
2025-12-07 0.016464 0.026667 0.044453 0.080065 0.156211 0.330443 0.834672
2025-12-14 0.014192 0.023702 0.040965 0.077330 0.160409 0.367760 1.047879
2025-12-21 0.011848 0.020249 0.035978 0.070435 0.153360 0.375332 1.183715
2025-12-28 0.010614 0.018652 0.034272 0.070174 0.162388 0.432379 1.562665
2026-01-04 0.009691 0.017502 0.033253 0.071256 0.175625 0.511639 2.153540
2026-01-11 0.008793 0.016294 0.031962 0.071570 0.187752 0.599557 2.972107
2026-01-18 0.008003 0.015190 0.030704 0.071708 0.199925 0.700279 4.130089
2026-01-25 0.007188 0.013920 0.028857 0.069858 0.205367 0.781487 5.430472
2026-02-01 0.006382 0.012561 0.026580 0.066277 0.203680 0.832244 6.703737
2026-02-08 0.005908 0.011865 0.025774 0.066758 0.217424 0.977647 9.710326
2026-02-15 0.005467 0.011186 0.024894 0.066815 0.230010 1.136421 14.058951
2026-02-22 0.005138 0.010722 0.024482 0.068271 0.249719 1.372453 22.155344
2026-03-01 0.004825 0.010252 0.023971 0.069291 0.268619 1.640632 35.214828
2026-03-08 0.004452 0.009591 0.022842 0.067902 0.275645 1.835079 50.602894
2026-03-15 0.003983 0.008641 0.020777 0.062677 0.260727 1.818703 57.869138
2026-03-22 0.003752 0.008261 0.020259 0.063012 0.275996 2.129340 94.154719